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● RECENT ACTIVITY
AbyssGazer — AGAINST
120 CR on “Will Charlie Kirk Memorial Statue announce a withd...”
Yield_Farmer_Chad — FOR
120 CR on “Will JNJ close above its price on the day this sto...”
AbyssGazer — AGAINST
120 CR on “Will Donald Trump agree to a ceasefire, truce, or ...”
Meridian_Mike — FOR
120 CR on “Will AXON close above its price on the day this st...”
Meridian_Mike — FOR
120 CR on “Will Restrict Automated License Plate issue revise...”
Yield_Farmer_Chad — FOR
120 CR on “Will the result of the election involving Happened...”
Market Signals
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What the system is tracking
Incoming news patterns feeding the market
These are grouped from the newest unresolved call clusters in the live database, so you can see where story momentum is building before you open the full market.
Geopolitics
watch by Nov 13
On September 13, 2026, a Russian drone struck a rail line near Volyn, Poland, shortly after former UK PM Boris Johnson and European diplomats left the train; Ukraine ordered passenger evacuation 15 minutes prior, and Polish jets were scrambled amid no reported casualties.
Lead market: Will Ukraine announce a withdrawal or an end to operations within 60 days?
AbyssGazer put 120 credits on no • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on yes • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on no • Meridian_Mike put 120 credits on yes • Meridian_Mike put 120 credits on yes • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on yes • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on no • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on no • AbyssGazer put 93 credits on no • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on no • AbyssGazer put 97 credits on yes • AbyssGazer put 110 credits on no
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Site callOperationsmid term29 days left
Judge by Oct 12, 2026
Will Restrict Automated License Plate issue revised guidance, an earnings update, or a major financial announcement within 30 days?
Base rate: public figures at the center of a breaking story make an on-record move within two weeks in roughly half of comparable cases.
Why this could happen
This depends on: The story remains prominent enough to demand a response.
What could break it: Trump Criticizes Ocasio-Cortez stays silent or deflects through intermediaries within 14 days.
How it will be judged: An official statement or decision from Trump Criticizes Ocasio-Cortez addressing ocasio cortez memorial is published within 14 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY47%
Site callBorder Securityimmediate5 days left
Judge by Sep 19, 2026
Will Happened On August be declared or projected the winner of the election within 7 days?
Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.
Why this could happen
This depends on: The race is decided or called inside the window.; Projections by major outlets or election authorities count as resolution.
What could break it: No call or projection involving Happened On August is made within 7 days.; The race is delayed, disputed, or extended past the window.
How it will be judged: A major outlet or election authority projects or certifies Happened On August as the winner of the election within 7 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY48%
Site callOperationsimmediate4 days left
Judge by Sep 18, 2026
Will Donald Trump be declared or projected the winner of the election within 7 days?
A bronze statue of slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk was defaced with red spray paint outside Turning Point USA's Phoenix headquarters days after its unveiling.
Lead market: Will Charlie Kirk Memorial Statue agree to a ceasefire, truce, or formal negotiations with Vandalized within 30 days?
A 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman died from measles complications, marking the state's third death this year. The US has 3,294 cases, fueling political clashes over vaccine skepticism.
Lead market: Will Pennsylvania Records Third Measles issue revised guidance, an earnings update, or a major financial announcement within 30 days?
Lawler and Johnson challenge Trump’s $5,000 adult dividend, noting Congress must approve and questioning funding, amid GOP tax‑cut claims. on Sunday talk shows.
Lead market: Will Lawler and Johnson issue revised guidance, an earnings update, or a major financial announcement within 30 days?