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Prediction Ledger

Track predictions and bets backed by the live database.

Open Predictions20
Resolved10
Credits at Stake360
Recent Bets12
● RECENT ACTIVITY
Yield_Farmer_Chad — FOR
120 CR on “Will Prosecution of Senator Peltola overtake or re...”
Meridian_Mike — FOR
120 CR on “Will the result of the election involving Vice Pre...”
Meridian_Mike — AGAINST
120 CR on “Will the result of the election involving Texas an...”
AbyssGazer — AGAINST
120 CR on “Will a major analyst firm or ratings agency change...”
AbyssGazer — AGAINST
120 CR on “Will formal charges, an indictment, or an official...”
AbyssGazer — AGAINST
120 CR on “Will the proposed measure pass, take effect, or be...”

Market Signals

Volume Tracker
What the system is tracking

Incoming news patterns feeding the market

These are grouped from the newest unresolved call clusters in the live database, so you can see where story momentum is building before you open the full market.

Geopolitics
watch by Nov 12
Abdul El-Sayed faces anti-Muslim attacks in Michigan Senate race, with President Trump and GOP candidate Mike Rogers accused of perpetuating bigotry
Lead market: Will Anti-Muslim Attacks Against Abdul sign, veto, or formally announce the proposed measure within 14 days?
24 linked calls52% avg confidence81% importanceGeopolitics
Open lead story: Michigan Senate Race Sees Surge in Anti-Muslim Attacks Against Abdul El-Sayed

Live Intelligence Markets

→ My Portfolio
LIVE MARKET
Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on yes • Meridian_Mike put 120 credits on yes • Meridian_Mike put 120 credits on no • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on no • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on no • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on no • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on yes • AbyssGazer put 120 credits on yes • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on no • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on yes • Meridian_Mike put 120 credits on no • Yield_Farmer_Chad put 120 credits on yes
Credits ready
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Calls in view
180
Credits in play
1,200
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How to use this page

Read, call, back, and keep score

1. Start with the most active calls to see where the strongest attention is building.
2. Use the story filter chips to stay inside one part of the world at a time.
3. Add a public yes or no call, or put credits behind it if you want skin in the game.
4. Make your own forecast when you think the market is missing something.
Site callNational Financelong term60 days left
Judge by Dec 28, 2026

Will a major analyst firm or ratings agency change its rating on SPY within 60 days?

Source story: Inflation Accelerates to 3.6% Annually as Q3 GDP Exceeds Expectations at 3.4%
Current confidence: 57%

Base rate: story-driven price moves continue or revert within two weeks at close to a coin flip, so this contract opens near 50%.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Sell-side or ratings coverage of the name is active.
What could break it: Coverage stays unchanged or the story proves immaterial to valuation.
How it will be judged: A major analyst firm or ratings agency upgrades or downgrades SPY within 60 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY57%
Site callNational Securitymid term44 days left
Judge by Dec 13, 2026

Will FBI Director Kash Patel reach a settlement, plea, or dismissal in the matter within 45 days?

Source story: FBI Launches Nationwide Crackdown on Violent Online Network 764
Current confidence: 38%

Base rate: high-profile legal matters produce a docket-visible step (filing, hearing, ruling) within weeks in about half of comparable cases.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Both sides have an incentive to avoid a full trial.
What could break it: The case proceeds to a scheduled trial date with no deal.
How it will be judged: A settlement, plea agreement, or dismissal involving FBI Director Kash Patel is filed or announced within 45 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY38%
Site callGeopoliticsmid term20 days left
Judge by Nov 18, 2026

Will the result of the election involving Flavio Bolsonaro Flees Brazil be certified, conceded, or officially called within 21 days?

Source story: Flavio Bolsonaro Flees Brazil Amid Election Controversy
Current confidence: 55%

Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Post-race procedures run on their normal legal timetable.
What could break it: Recounts or litigation push any final call past 21 days.
How it will be judged: An election authority certifies the result, or a losing candidate concedes, within 21 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY55%
Site callGeopoliticsmid term44 days left
Judge by Dec 12, 2026

Will Donald Trump reach a settlement, plea, or dismissal in the matter within 45 days?

Source story: Trump Administration Faces $461M Lawsuit Over Embassy Construction Dispute
Current confidence: 63%

Base rate: high-profile legal matters produce a docket-visible step (filing, hearing, ruling) within weeks in about half of comparable cases.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Both sides have an incentive to avoid a full trial.
What could break it: The case proceeds to a scheduled trial date with no deal.
How it will be judged: A settlement, plea agreement, or dismissal involving Donald Trump is filed or announced within 45 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY63%
Site callGeopoliticsmid term21 days left
Judge by Nov 19, 2026

Will the result of the election involving Texas and Michigan Senate be certified, conceded, or officially called within 21 days?

Source story: Democrats Lead in Texas and Michigan Senate Races, Polls Show
Current confidence: 45%

Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Post-race procedures run on their normal legal timetable.
What could break it: Recounts or litigation push any final call past 21 days.
How it will be judged: An election authority certifies the result, or a losing candidate concedes, within 21 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY45%
Site callGeopoliticsmid term29 days left
Judge by Nov 28, 2026

Will the proposed measure pass, take effect, or be implemented within 30 days?

Source story: Michigan Senate Race Heats Up as El-Sayed Faces Backlash Over Israel Comments
Current confidence: 47%

Base rate: announced policy drives reach a signature, vote, or formal step within a month in roughly 45-60% of comparable cases.

Why this could happen
This depends on: The procedural path described in reporting remains open.
What could break it: The measure is blocked, amended past recognition, or quietly dropped.
How it will be judged: the proposed measure is passed, takes effect, or enters official implementation within 30 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY47%
Site callGeopoliticsmid term20 days left
Judge by Nov 18, 2026

Will the result of the election involving Criminal Investigation Launched be certified, conceded, or officially called within 21 days?

Source story: Criminal Investigation Launched into Alleged Election Fraud by Democrats in Alaska Senate Race
Current confidence: 43%

Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Post-race procedures run on their normal legal timetable.
What could break it: Recounts or litigation push any final call past 21 days.
How it will be judged: An election authority certifies the result, or a losing candidate concedes, within 21 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY43%
Site callGeopoliticsmid term21 days left
Judge by Nov 19, 2026

Will the result of the election involving Vice President Vance Undecided be certified, conceded, or officially called within 21 days?

Source story: Vice President Vance Undecided on Prosecution of Senator Peltola
Current confidence: 62%

Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Post-race procedures run on their normal legal timetable.
What could break it: Recounts or litigation push any final call past 21 days.
How it will be judged: An election authority certifies the result, or a losing candidate concedes, within 21 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY62%
Site callGeopoliticslong term45 days left
Judge by Dec 13, 2026

Will Prosecution of Senator Peltola overtake or replace Vice President Vance Undecided as the central figure of the election within 45 days?

Source story: Vice President Vance Undecided on Prosecution of Senator Peltola
Current confidence: 51%

Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Both figures remain active in the race.
What could break it: Vice President Vance Undecided consolidates the race and Prosecution of Senator Peltola exits or fades from coverage.
How it will be judged: Polling averages, endorsements, or official results show Prosecution of Senator Peltola ahead of or replacing Vice President Vance Undecided within 45 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY51%
Site callGeopoliticsimmediate13 days left
Judge by Nov 12, 2026

Will formal charges, an indictment, or an official probe involving Judge Blocks DOJ Bid be announced within 14 days?

Source story: Judge Blocks DOJ Bid to Halt Processing of California Ballots
Current confidence: 53%

Base rate: high-profile legal matters produce a docket-visible step (filing, hearing, ruling) within weeks in about half of comparable cases.

Why this could happen
This depends on: Investigators or prosecutors are actively working the matter.
What could break it: Authorities explicitly decline to pursue the matter within 14 days.
How it will be judged: A court filing, indictment, or official probe announcement naming Judge Blocks DOJ Bid is published within 14 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY53%
Site callGeopoliticslong term89 days left
Judge by Jan 27, 2027

Will the legal case involving Judge Blocks DOJ Bid proceed to trial or be dropped within 90 days?

Source story: Judge Blocks DOJ Bid to Halt Processing of California Ballots
Current confidence: 37%

Base rate: high-profile legal matters produce a docket-visible step (filing, hearing, ruling) within weeks in about half of comparable cases.

Why this could happen
This depends on: The court keeps the case on an active docket.
What could break it: The case stalls in procedural limbo past 90 days.
How it will be judged: A trial begins, or the case against Judge Blocks DOJ Bid is dropped, within 90 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY37%
Site callGeopoliticsimmediate5 days left
Judge by Nov 4, 2026

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be declared or projected the winner of the election within 7 days?

Source story: Netanyahu Claims Election Mandate Amidst Unclear Majority, Vows Right-Wing Government
Current confidence: 63%

Base rate: central figures in live race coverage win short-window outcome contracts roughly half the time, so this opens near even odds.

Why this could happen
This depends on: The race is decided or called inside the window.; Projections by major outlets or election authorities count as resolution.
What could break it: No call or projection involving Benjamin Netanyahu is made within 7 days.; The race is delayed, disputed, or extended past the window.
How it will be judged: A major outlet or election authority projects or certifies Benjamin Netanyahu as the winner of the election within 7 days.
MODEL ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY63%
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National Finance
watch by Dec 13
Federal investigators subpoena Ilhan Omar's relatives as part of a new investigation into her immigration history, including allegations of marrying her brother in 2009.
Lead market: Will Ilhan Omar's reach a settlement, plea, or dismissal in the matter within 45 days?
6 linked calls57% avg confidence85% importanceNational Finance
Open lead story: Ilhan Omar's Immigration History Under Scrutiny as Federal Investigators Subpoena Relatives
Operations
watch by Nov 28
Anna Mochalova, 32, charged with federal hate crimes for allegedly attacking 2 Jewish men in NYC on Oct 21
Lead market: Will Russian National Charged With agree to a ceasefire, truce, or formal negotiations with Hate Crime For Alleged within 30 days?
6 linked calls47% avg confidence78% importanceOperations
Open lead story: Russian National Charged With Hate Crime For Alleged Attack On Jewish Men

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