Trump Renews Threat to Strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Amid Ongoing Military ActionsDeep Dive

What Happened

On Friday, September 5, 2026, United States President Donald Trump stated that Washington might strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain “very soon,” marking the latest in a series of threats against the heavily fortified underground site. This declaration came during a discussion with reporters in the Oval Office, where Trump asserted that the US possesses comprehensive intelligence on movements “at Pickaxe” and across Iran. Hours after this threat, an Iranian oil tanker off Kharg Island, a critical hub for Iran’s oil exports, was reportedly struck by four US missiles, according to the Iranian news outlet Khabar Fouri. This incident follows a similar threat made by Trump in mid-July on the Hugh Hewitt Show, where he stated, “We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to be ready… We’ll probably give Pickaxe a shot relatively soon.” The current events unfold more than six months into a conflict that the US and Israel initiated against Iran on February 28, 2026, characterized by mixed messages from the Trump administration regarding its scope and intensity.

Vice President JD Vance, speaking at a White House briefing earlier in the week, downplayed the conflict, stating he “wouldn’t call it a war” and claiming “no active shooting right now.” However, both the US and Iran have engaged in exchanges this week, including a US strike near Iran’s oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. Trump himself described the ongoing confrontation as an intermittent “military conflict” on Friday, while also calling the broader war in Iran “small potatoes.” These actions and statements occur as talks concerning Iran’s nuclear program remain stalled, with a 60-day negotiating window having expired in mid-August without any resolution. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters has warned that any bombing of Pickaxe Mountain would escalate the regional conflict, a scenario the Trump administration reportedly seeks to avoid before upcoming mid-term elections.

What the Evidence Establishes

Evidence establishes that Pickaxe Mountain, known in Iran as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, is an underground facility located approximately 220km (140 miles) south of Tehran in Isfahan province, just 2km (1.2 miles) from the Natanz enrichment plant. US intelligence reports indicate the facility is excavated deep within the mountain, beneath hundreds of meters of solid granite, with main chambers thought to be at least 100 meters (330ft) underground, designed to withstand powerful bunker-penetrating bombs. The Institute for Science and International Security, which monitors the site via satellite, has assessed that Pickaxe Mountain is still under construction and not yet operational. Despite this, some Western analysts speculate it was intended to house an undeclared enrichment plant, serving as a safeguard against attacks on Iran’s known nuclear facilities.

Past US and Israeli military operations have significantly impacted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025, involving B-2 Spirit stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles, targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The Pentagon initially claimed these sites were “completely obliterated,” a statement later contradicted by a leaked preliminary US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment. This assessment concluded the sites were significantly damaged but not destroyed, estimating a setback to Iran’s nuclear program of less than six months. The European Council on Foreign Relations estimates the 2025 strikes destroyed many of the roughly 18,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow, along with production sites and Iran’s only yellowcake milling plant at Ardakan. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed further damage to Natanz’s entrance buildings in March 2026 but detected no additional impact on the plant itself. The IAEA also verified about 10 tonnes of enriched uranium, including 440kg (970lb) enriched to 60 percent, before Iran suspended cooperation after the 2025 strikes. This 440kg, if enriched to 90 percent, is theoretically enough for more than 10 nuclear warheads, according to IAEA chief Rafael Grossi in early March.

Where the Accounts Conflict

Significant discrepancies exist in the characterization of the ongoing conflict and the effectiveness of past military actions. President Trump, on Friday, September 5, 2026, referred to the situation in Iran as “small potatoes” and an “intermittent military conflict,” suggesting a limited engagement. Conversely, the Al Jazeera report explicitly states that the US and Israel launched a “war” on Iran on February 28, 2026, implying a more extensive and continuous conflict. Vice President JD Vance further complicated the narrative by stating earlier in the week that he “wouldn’t call it a war” and claimed there was “no active shooting right now,” despite acknowledged exchanges of attacks, including the recent US strike near Kharg Island.

Another area of conflict pertains to the impact of the June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump initially declared the targeted sites “completely and totally obliterated.” However, a leaked preliminary US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment contradicted this, concluding the sites were “significantly damaged but not destroyed,” with a setback of less than six months. Furthermore, while Trump asserts that the US has prevented Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, Iran consistently maintains its nuclear program is peaceful. The Wall Street Journal reported in July 2026 that Israeli intelligence suggested thousands of centrifuges had been moved into Pickaxe Mountain late last year, a claim the US has not confirmed. The Institute for Science and International Security, however, reported in June 2026 that tunnel entrances at all three main sites remain sealed, with no evidence of enrichment taking place, and that the centrifuge program still appears to have been destroyed, directly conflicting with the Israeli intelligence claim of centrifuge transfers.

Context and Stakes

The renewed threats against Pickaxe Mountain and the ongoing military actions against Iran are set against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions and a stalled nuclear non-proliferation framework. Pickaxe Mountain's strategic importance stems from its deep underground construction, designed to protect it from conventional bunker-buster munitions, making it a potential fallback site for Iran's nuclear program should its known facilities be compromised. Western analysts speculate it could house an undeclared enrichment plant, a critical concern given Iran's current stockpile of 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent, which is theoretically sufficient for more than 10 nuclear warheads if further enriched to 90 percent.

The stakes are high for both regional stability and global non-proliferation efforts. Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters has warned that striking Pickaxe Mountain would constitute a renewal of war across the region, potentially drawing in more actors and destabilizing global energy markets. For the Trump administration, maintaining pressure on Iran while avoiding a full-scale regional war is a delicate balance, particularly with pivotal mid-term elections approaching. The US objective, as articulated by Trump and Vance, is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and to ensure the free flow of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of IAEA access to Iranian sites since the 2025 strikes further complicates verification efforts, leaving the international community reliant on intelligence assessments that are often contested or unconfirmed, thereby increasing uncertainty regarding Iran's actual nuclear capabilities and intentions.

What to Watch Next

Observers should closely monitor official statements from the US administration, particularly President Trump and Vice President Vance, for any further clarification or escalation regarding the status of military operations in Iran and the specific targeting of Pickaxe Mountain. The frequency and nature of these statements will indicate the administration's immediate intentions and its public framing strategy ahead of the mid-term elections. Any shift from the current

Bottom Line

President Trump's renewed threats against Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, coupled with recent US missile strikes on an Iranian oil tanker, underscore an escalating but ambiguously defined military confrontation. While the US administration maintains its objective is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and secure the Strait of Hormuz, the precise scope and intensity of the conflict remain subject to conflicting official narratives. Iran's deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility, though reportedly not yet operational, represents a critical point of contention due to its potential for future nuclear activities and its strategic resilience against attack. The international community, particularly the IAEA, faces significant challenges in verifying Iran's nuclear program status due to suspended cooperation and limited access to key sites.

The immediate future will likely see continued rhetorical pressure from the US, potentially accompanied by targeted military actions, while Iran maintains its stance on a peaceful nuclear program and warns against further escalation. The upcoming mid-term elections in the US will exert pressure on the Trump administration to manage the conflict carefully, balancing assertive action with containment to avoid a broader regional war. The unresolved status of Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile and the unconfirmed reports of centrifuge transfers into Pickaxe Mountain highlight persistent intelligence gaps and the high stakes involved in preventing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.