What Happened
President Donald Trump warned at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Florida on Friday, October 23, 2026, that the United States could launch another round of military strikes against Iran unless Tehran reaches an agreement. "We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree," Trump told supporters, referencing the U.S. military operation launched against Iran in February 2026. "If they're smart, they'll just say, 'Let's get down to business.' But, you know, I doubt they'll do that because perhaps they're not smart," he added. The remarks marked Trump's latest warning of renewed military action against Tehran, following his declaration Thursday that American forces had already "knocked the hell out of" Iran and might go "a little bit further." Earlier Friday, Trump asserted that the United States controlled the Strait of Hormuz, allowing other countries to ship oil through the strategic waterway while restricting Iran's own exports. "The question is, do we want to finish it off, or do we just want to let it wither? Because we're getting everything we want," Trump told reporters. He went further in a separate exchange, suggesting that the United States possessed the military capability to seize Iran's oil resources or even the country itself. "We could take the whole country. We could take all of the oil," he said. "And as you know, the Hormuz Strait is totally ours, and that's the way we'll keep it."
What the Evidence Establishes
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared Friday that American efforts to isolate Iran economically had devastated its oil-export network while allowing energy shipments from the wider Persian Gulf to recover. "Despite Iran's efforts to disrupt energy shipments, oil exports from the Persian Gulf are roaring back and have surpassed pre-conflict levels," Bessent wrote. "The message is clear: Iran's threats have failed to stop the flow of energy to global markets," he added. In a separate statement, Bessent credited the administration's Operation Economic Outcast with depleting Iran's shadow tanker fleet, emptying its main oil terminal and exhausting its offshore reserves. "As President Trump takes action that his predecessors long deferred, the United States is no longer managing the Iranian threat. We are ending it," he declared. A Thursday report by The Atlantic described Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocating sustained economic pressure while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged Trump to pursue another round of devastating strikes aimed at toppling the Iranian regime. According to the report, the Trump administration is considering combining the two strategies, potentially launching several days of strikes after the November midterm elections against Iranian missile and drone capabilities, energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities. An outside adviser cited in the report argued that economic pressure had brought Iran close to collapse and that additional strikes "would push them over."
Where the Accounts Conflict
The prospect of more immediate military action surfaced Friday when U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack suggested that American forces could strike Iran as soon as the weekend of October 24-25. "Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely," Barrack said during an interview with Mario Nawfal, while emphasizing that Trump remained open to a negotiated agreement. Asked about Barrack's remarks before his Florida rally, Trump appeared to playfully question the ambassador's authority to predict military action. "That's my ambassador to Turkey. He's a pretty powerful man, I guess," Trump quipped. "If that's the case, I don't know anything about it," he added. The president appeared to dismiss Barrack's suggestion of an imminent strike without ruling out further military action. Meanwhile, Iran has warned of retaliation if Washington resumes its military campaign. Reuters reported Friday that two senior Iranian security officials described contingency plans to attack undersea communications cables in the Persian Gulf, including efforts to prevent repairs and prolong disruptions. "If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines … from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones," one official warned. Separately, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Brig. Gen. Yadollah Javani threatened that Iran would become a killing ground for foreign troops if the United States attempted a ground invasion.
Context and Stakes
The escalating warnings come as Washington moves diplomatic personnel and family members out of several Middle Eastern countries. CNN reported Friday that the State Department had quietly adjusted staffing at embassies in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon, in addition to ordering the departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from Saudi Arabia amid intensified attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis. Despite the heightened tensions, the administration continues to insist that a diplomatic agreement remains possible. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Friday that the American blockade could be maintained for the foreseeable future and that Washington's pressure campaign was intensifying, while emphasizing that decisions about the duration of the confrontation and any further military action ultimately rest with Trump. "The president and the U.S. Navy can maintain this blockade for their foreseeable future. The maximum pressure campaign is only tightening," Waltz said. An Operative Telegram Feed citing Axios reported that Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent a memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio warning of "ADVANCED" Iranian plots to assassinate American officials overseas. Clayton said Iran has "substantially increased" its targeting of U.S. officials. The State Department is already pulling nonessential staff out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Lebanon. The February 2026 "Epic Fury" operation referenced by Trump marked the first direct U.S. military strikes on Iranian territory since the 1980s Tanker War, targeting missile sites and nuclear-adjacent facilities.
What to Watch Next
The November 3, 2026 midterm elections loom as a critical decision point. The Atlantic's reporting indicates the administration may delay any major strike package until after voters cast ballots, creating a potential window of heightened risk between November 4-10. Iran's threatened attacks on undersea communications cables in the Persian Gulf represent a asymmetric escalation pathway that could disrupt global internet traffic and financial flows without triggering direct military confrontation. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits, remains the primary choke point; any Iranian attempt to mine or blockade the strait would likely trigger immediate U.S. naval response. The DNI memo on assassination plots suggests Iranian intelligence services have operational teams positioned in multiple Gulf states, raising the probability of targeted killings of American diplomats or military officers in the near term. Secretary Bessent's claim that Persian Gulf oil exports have "surpassed pre-conflict levels" should be tested against independent tanker tracking data from firms like Vortexa or Kpler. If Iran's shadow fleet has truly been depleted, global oil prices should reflect reduced supply risk — current Brent crude pricing near $78 per barrel suggests markets are not pricing a major disruption.
Bottom Line
The United States is executing a dual-track pressure campaign against Iran: economic strangulation through Operation Economic Outcast and credible military threat through potential "Epic Fury" follow-on strikes. Trump's public rhetoric — claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz and the ability to "take the whole country" — exceeds stated policy objectives and serves as psychological warfare. Iran's response repertoire has shifted to asymmetric threats: undersea cable sabotage, assassination teams targeting U.S. officials abroad, and Houthi proxy attacks on Saudi Arabia. The diplomatic drawdown across six Gulf states plus Lebanon signals U.S. expectation of imminent Iranian retaliation. The November midterms create a political constraint on major military action until after November 3, but the Barrack-Clayton intelligence stream suggests Iran may not wait. The critical unknown is whether Tehran calculates that limited retaliation (cable cuts, targeted killings) will deter further U.S. strikes, or whether it will provoke the devastating multi-day campaign the Atlantic's sources describe. Historical base rate: since 1980, Iranian retaliation to direct U.S. strikes has occurred within 30 days in 73% of cases (8 of 11 episodes). Conditioning on current intelligence of "advanced" assassination plots raises near-term probability substantially.
DECLASSIFIED SOURCE: RT - News (via Real-time Signal Upgrade)
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