US House Grants Trump New Tariff Authority Against Russian Oil Buyers China, India

What Happened

On Wednesday, September 17, 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a comprehensive Russia sanctions bill, providing President Donald Trump with statutory authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on nations that purchase oil from Russia. This legislative action directly targets major importers of Russian energy, specifically placing China and India in a precarious position. The bill's passage occurred shortly after the BRICS Summit, where Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders from Global South nations, including China and India, collectively condemned unilateral economic sanctions and secondary sanctions, without explicitly naming the United States. This new authority allows the President to "strike hard and quickly at any time for any reason," according to Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at Hinrich Foundation. The immediate effect is a significant increase in leverage for Washington in its diplomatic and trade dealings with New Delhi and Beijing, particularly as India is currently negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S., and Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with Trump later this month.

The legislation follows a period of increased reliance by both China and India on discounted Russian crude oil since the 2022 Ukraine war, a trend exacerbated by the recent Iran war which further tightened global energy supplies. India's foreign ministry responded on Thursday, stating the country "remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people" and would work with trade bodies to manage the implications. This development creates an uncomfortable calculation for both nations, as they face the prospect of substantial tariffs on their exports to the U.S. if they continue their current energy procurement strategies. Previous U.S. tariffs on India, which peaked at 50% in 2025 before being reduced to 18% in February 2026, underscore the potential economic impact.

What the Evidence Establishes

Evidence establishes that China and India have become critically dependent on Russian crude oil. According to Kpler data, the combined share of Russian oil imports by India and China has surged from one-fifth to one-third of Russia's total crude exports following the Hormuz crisis. Specifically, China purchased half of Russia's crude exports as of August-end 2026, while India acquired 37%. This reliance translates to approximately 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian seaborne supply for both countries, in addition to roughly 600,000 bpd China imports via pipeline. Replacing this volume would be "extremely challenging" under current conditions, as noted by Ivan Ryabov, head of oil trading analysis at Kpler.

India's dependence is particularly acute, with Russian crude accounting for over 50% of its crude purchases in June and July 2026, and over 40% in August. In fiscal year 2026, Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports, totaling $40.8 billion out of a $134.7 billion import bill, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). This shift has yielded significant savings for India, estimated at $12.6 billion since 2022. The U.S. is a critical export destination for India, importing approximately $104 billion of Indian goods in 2025, with two-way trade reaching $240 billion. Indian exports to the U.S. include electronics ($25.8 billion in 2025), pharmaceuticals ($9.7 billion), and machinery ($7.2 billion). The potential 100% tariffs would be applied to these Indian exports, not directly on Russian crude entering India, creating a significant economic threat to India's trade balance and refinery margins.

Where the Accounts Conflict

While the immediate impact of the U.S. House bill is clear, expert opinions diverge on the likelihood and extent of President Trump's use of the new tariff authority. Ronak D Desai, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution, suggests that President Trump will sign the law but hold its tariff authority "in reserve as an instrument of leverage," implying a cautious, strategic application rather than immediate, full-scale implementation. This view is echoed by Stephen Olson of ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, who believes Washington might use "wiggle room" in the timing or scale of any tariffs, and that Beijing may initially "sit back and see what actually happens" after issuing a statement of opposition.

Conversely, other analysts anticipate a more direct confrontation. Martin Chorzempa, a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, states that should the bill materialize into tariffs, "China would certainly retaliate." Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, expects Beijing to defy any restrictions to prioritize energy security, deeming any meaningful pullback in Russian oil and gas imports "politically unacceptable." For India, Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia advisor at Teneo, indicates that Washington's expectation for India to cease Russian oil imports would be a "difficult ask to comply with." Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official, views the bill as a "blunt and dangerous attempt to pressurise India to sign the bilateral trade agreement on one-sided terms," suggesting a direct, coercive intent behind the legislation. These conflicting perspectives highlight the uncertainty surrounding the actual deployment and consequences of this new U.S. tariff power.

Context and Stakes

The passage of this sanctions bill occurs within a complex geopolitical landscape marked by ongoing conflicts and shifting alliances. The Ukraine war, which began in 2022, initially prompted Western sanctions on Russia, leading to discounted Russian crude flowing to non-Western markets. The subsequent Iran war has further tightened global energy supplies, making Russian oil even more critical for nations like China and India seeking affordable and stable energy sources. This context underscores the energy security imperatives driving Beijing and New Delhi's purchasing decisions, often in direct opposition to Western diplomatic pressure.

The stakes are substantial for all parties. For the United States, the bill represents an attempt to further isolate Russia economically and exert influence over Global South nations perceived as undermining sanctions efforts. For China, maintaining energy security is a paramount political objective, and any disruption to Russian oil imports could have significant domestic implications. Beijing's role in global supply chains also provides it with considerable leverage for potential retaliation. India faces a particularly difficult dilemma: balancing its critical need for affordable energy for its 1.4 billion people with the risk of severe economic penalties on its substantial export trade with the U.S. The ongoing bilateral trade deal negotiations between the U.S. and India are now directly imperiled, as the tariff threat could force India into concessions it views as one-sided. The public mood in India has also been turning negative against the U.S., according to Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation, suggesting that tariffs could accelerate this trend and complicate future diplomatic relations.

What to Watch Next

Observers should closely monitor several key developments in the coming weeks. The immediate focus will be on President Trump's decision regarding signing the Russia sanctions bill into law. While experts like Ronak D Desai anticipate he will sign it, the timing and any accompanying statements will be crucial. Following this, attention will shift to the upcoming meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump later this month. The discussions surrounding Russian oil purchases and potential tariffs will likely dominate the agenda, and any joint statements or lack thereof will signal the immediate trajectory of U.S.-China relations on this issue. China's official response to the bill, particularly whether it issues a strong statement of opposition and then adopts a wait-and-see approach, as suggested by Stephen Olson, will also be indicative.

For India, the critical next steps involve its government's engagement with the White House. Atman Trivedi of DGA Albright Stonebridge Group suggests India is likely to "quietly seek confirmation" regarding eligibility for exemptions from the tariffs. The progress, or lack thereof, in the U.S.-India bilateral trade agreement negotiations will serve as a direct barometer of the tariff threat's impact. Any public statements from Indian officials regarding energy sourcing alternatives or trade concessions will also be important. Furthermore, the global oil market will be watching for any shifts in Russian crude flows or pricing, as a significant disruption could impact global energy stability. Ukraine's sanctions envoy's call for Asian governments to close loopholes for Russian tankers highlights ongoing international pressure that could influence these dynamics.

Bottom Line

The U.S. House of Representatives has equipped President Trump with a powerful new tool to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries, primarily China and India, that continue to purchase Russian oil. This legislative move intensifies pressure on these nations, which have become heavily reliant on discounted Russian crude since 2022, particularly after the Iran war further constrained global energy supplies. For India, the threat directly jeopardizes its ongoing trade deal negotiations with the U.S. and poses a significant economic risk to its $104 billion in annual exports to America, despite its critical need for affordable energy for its 1.4 billion citizens.

While the new authority provides Washington with substantial leverage, the actual implementation and scale of these tariffs remain uncertain, with experts divided on whether President Trump will use them aggressively or hold them in reserve as a bargaining chip. China is expected to resist any efforts to curb its Russian oil imports, citing energy security as a political imperative, and possesses significant economic leverage for potential retaliation. India, lacking China's global supply chain dominance, faces a more acute dilemma in balancing its energy needs with the economic consequences of U.S. tariffs. The coming weeks will reveal how these major global powers navigate this escalating economic and geopolitical tension, with significant implications for international trade, energy markets, and diplomatic relations.