Iran Issues Ultimatum to Gulf States Amid Escalating US SanctionsDeep Dive

What Happened

On Saturday, August 23, 2026, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a direct warning to Middle Eastern nations against participating in the United States' "economic war" against Tehran. Speaking to the IRIB state broadcaster, Rezaei stated that "Any country that takes part in imposing economic restrictions on us will be regarded as an enemy," and threatened "seismic" retaliation. This warning comes as the conflict between Washington and Tehran approaches its six-month mark, having commenced on February 28. The United States is reportedly planning to announce new sanctions on Monday, which are expected to further strain the Iranian economy. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed this sentiment on Sunday, declaring Iran to be "in a full-scale economic, military and security war" with the US, asserting that Washington's predictions of Iran's collapse had failed.

Rezaei specifically cautioned Iran’s neighbors that if they aligned with the US economic measures, "not even a drop of oil" would leave the Gulf region. This threat explicitly included alternative export routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a fifth of global oil and gas exports typically pass. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a gateway to the Red Sea, was implicitly referenced as a potential target, a route Saudi Arabia has utilized for oil exports following Iran's blockade of Hormuz. Iran's strategy, as outlined by Rezaei, involves a three-stage sequence: initial negotiations with cooperating countries to de-escalate, followed by strikes targeting those countries' interests if talks fail. This aggressive stance signals an increasing preparation for escalation within Iran's military-security establishment, according to Hamidreza Azizi of the Clingendael Institute.

What the Evidence Establishes

The evidence establishes that Iran, through its Supreme National Security Council leader Mohsen Rezaei, issued a clear and public warning on Saturday, August 23, 2026, to its Middle Eastern neighbors. Both The Hill and Al Jazeera reported on this development, confirming Rezaei's statement that countries joining the US "economic war" would be considered enemies. Al Jazeera further detailed Rezaei's specific threats, including "seismic" retaliation and the explicit warning that "not even a drop of oil" would leave the Gulf region, encompassing routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz, such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This indicates a direct threat to global oil supply chains.

The context for this warning is the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which began on February 28 and is nearing its six-month anniversary. The US is poised to announce new sanctions on Monday, August 25, 2026, intensifying economic pressure on Tehran. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed the state of "full-scale economic, military and security war" with the US, rejecting Washington's earlier predictions of Iran's collapse. The Iranian strategy, as articulated by Rezaei, involves a phased approach starting with diplomatic engagement but escalating to direct targeting of interests if countries do not comply. Analysts like Hamidreza Azizi interpret this as an "ultimatum" to Gulf states and a preparation for further escalation, highlighting emerging elements of preemption and disproportionate retaliation in Iran's "offensive doctrine."

Where the Accounts Conflict

While both The Hill and Al Jazeera report on Iran's warning to Middle Eastern neighbors regarding US sanctions, their accounts differ primarily in depth and specific detail rather than direct contradiction. The Hill provides a concise overview, confirming Mohsen Rezaei's warning against joining the US "economic war" and noting the conflict's six-month duration. It cites The Associated Press as its source for Rezaei's "heads-up" to surrounding countries.

Al Jazeera, however, offers a significantly more extensive and granular account. It directly quotes Rezaei stating, "Any country that takes part in imposing economic restrictions on us will be regarded as an enemy," and warning of "seismic" retaliation. Crucially, Al Jazeera elaborates on the specific threat to oil exports, including the explicit mention that "not even a drop of oil" would leave the Gulf region, and identifies the Bab al-Mandeb Strait as a likely target for alternative export routes. Furthermore, Al Jazeera details Iran's three-stage strategy, President Pezeshkian's remarks, and includes analysis from experts like Hamidreza Azizi and Simon Mabon, providing historical context on US sanctions and Gulf states' diplomatic relations with Iran. The Hill's report lacks these specific quotes, strategic details, and expert analyses, making Al Jazeera's coverage more comprehensive regarding the specifics of Iran's threats and the broader geopolitical implications.

Context and Stakes

The current Iranian warning is set against a backdrop of decades of US sanctions and a recently escalated "economic war" that began on February 28, 2026. The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with significant measures enacted by Presidents Bill Clinton in 1995, and further international sanctions by the UN Security Council in 2006 to curtail Iran's nuclear program. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) temporarily lifted sanctions, but President Donald Trump withdrew the US in 2018, reimposing all previous sanctions and initiating a "maximum pressure" campaign. This included designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisation’ in 2019 and imposing sanctions on key economic sectors. The Biden administration, from 2021 to 2025, largely maintained these sanctions, and UN sanctions were reimposed in September 2025 due to Iran's nuclear program.

The stakes are exceptionally high for global energy markets and regional stability. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime chokepoint, handling approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas exports. Iran's threat to disrupt all Gulf oil exports, including alternative routes like Bab al-Mandeb, could trigger a severe global energy crisis. Gulf nations, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, find themselves in a precarious position. They are US allies, hosting thousands of US soldiers and military facilities, yet they share a geographic proximity with Iran that necessitates a functioning relationship. While some, like the UAE, restored diplomatic ties with Iran in 2022, they also imposed a trade embargo last week following a missile attack attributed to Tehran, which Iran denies. Saudi Arabia and Iran normalized ties in 2023 through Chinese mediation, reflecting a calculation that engagement might be safer than perpetual confrontation. The current Iranian ultimatum tests these delicate regional balances, with analysts like Trita Parsi noting that no nation in the region can afford another long war, especially with depleted global oil inventories.

What to Watch Next

The immediate focus will be on the United States' announcement of new sanctions against Iran, expected on Monday, August 25, 2026. The nature and severity of these sanctions will dictate the next phase of the "economic war" and potentially influence Iran's subsequent actions. Observers will closely monitor the specific sectors targeted and the extent of their impact on Iran's already struggling economy. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's previous statement, "You’re either with us or against us," suggests a strong push for international compliance, particularly from major Iranian oil buyers like China, which purchases over 80 percent of Iran's oil shipments.

Another critical area to watch is the response from Gulf nations. Iran's three-stage strategy begins with negotiations, appealing to these countries to distance themselves from the US. Their public and private reactions to Iran's ultimatum will be crucial. Any overt alignment with the new US sanctions could trigger Iran's threatened "strike" against their interests, potentially impacting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The stability of existing diplomatic relations, such as those between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the UAE and Iran, will be tested. Any reported disruptions to oil tanker movements or increased naval presence in the Gulf region would signal a significant escalation. The international community will also be observing whether diplomatic efforts, which have stalled, can be revived to de-escalate the months-long conflict.

Bottom Line

Iran has issued a stark ultimatum to its Middle Eastern neighbors, threatening severe retaliation if they participate in impending US economic sanctions. This warning, delivered by Supreme National Security Council leader Mohsen Rezaei on August 23, 2026, explicitly targets oil exports from the entire Gulf region, including critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and potentially the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The move comes as the US prepares to announce new sanctions on Monday, August 25, 2026, intensifying an "economic war" that has been ongoing for nearly six months.

The situation places Gulf nations in a precarious position, balancing their alliances with the United States against their geographic proximity and complex diplomatic ties with Iran. While Iran's strategy begins with negotiation, it escalates to direct targeting of interests if compliance is not met. This development signals a heightened risk of regional instability and potential disruptions to global energy supplies, with significant implications for international shipping and oil markets. The coming days will reveal how Gulf states respond to this pressure and the specific nature of the new US sanctions, determining the immediate trajectory of this escalating geopolitical confrontation.