Collins Defects on Blanche Nomination as Senate GOP Margin Narrows to One Vote

What Happened

The Senate Judiciary Committee advanced acting Attorney General Todd Blanche's nomination to the full Senate on Tuesday in a 12-10 party-line vote, sending the confirmation to a floor where Republican leaders can afford to lose only one more vote. Hours after the committee vote, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) announced she will oppose Blanche on the floor, citing his approval of an IRS audit shield covering former President Donald Trump, his sons, and family members; the nearly $2 billion anti-weaponization fund established via a Trump-IRS lawsuit settlement; promises to anti-abortion groups to halt mailed abortion medication; attempted indictments of Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) for constitutionally protected speech; and pushback from over 1,200 Justice Department employees. With Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) absent indefinitely, Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), John Curtis (R-UT), and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) now hold decisive leverage. The nomination survived committee only after Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX) secured a Sunday night agreement rescinding the anti-weaponization fund order and narrowing the audit immunity scope to the original lawsuit plaintiffs.

What the Evidence Establishes

Primary sources confirm four concrete facts. First, the Judiciary Committee voted 12-10 on August 4, 2026 to advance Blanche, with Tillis and Cornyn providing the decisive Republican support after Blanche rescinded the Anti-Weaponization Fund order Sunday night. Second, Collins' written statement explicitly lists five grounds for opposition: the IRS audit shield for Trump and family; the $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund; commitments to anti-abortion organizations on medication abortion; the attempted indictments of Kelly and Slotkin for videos encouraging resistance to unlawful orders; and the letter from 1,200+ DOB employees. Third, Cornyn stated on the record that he used the nomination as leverage to force rescission of the fund, which originated from a settlement between Trump and the IRS, and that the agreement limits audit protection to the original plaintiffs and binds the department in future litigation. Fourth, Blanche announced the same day that DOJ filed 123 denaturalization complaints since January 20, 2025 — the most in recorded U.S. history — targeting naturalized citizens accused of attempted murder, child sexual assault, and other violent crimes.

Where the Accounts Conflict

Fox News and Breitbart frame the Tillis-Cornyn agreement differently. Fox reports critics say there is "no real binding mechanism" to prevent Trump or Blanche from tearing up the deal after confirmation, while Breitbart quotes Cornyn saying the document "will help limit the substance and scope" and that he expects the department to "live up to this in future litigation." Trump's own account conflicts with Cornyn's: Trump told reporters Friday that Cornyn held the nomination as retribution for Trump's endorsement of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate primary, while Cornyn presented his hold as principled leverage over the fund. The sources also differ on the audit shield's scope — Collins describes it as covering "Trump, his sons and family," while Cornyn says the agreement limits parties to "the plaintiffs, the people who brought the lawsuit, and no one else." No source provides the text of the Sunday agreement, leaving the actual binding language unverified.

Context and Stakes

The nomination fight reflects three intersecting power struggles. The anti-weaponization fund, seeded with $1.8 billion from a Trump-IRS settlement, represented an unprecedented mechanism to compensate individuals claiming political prosecution — effectively a presidential slush fund administered by the Justice Department. Its rescission removes a major structural innovation but leaves the audit shield intact for the original plaintiffs. Collins' opposition signals institutionalist Republican resistance to DOJ politicization, yet she voted to advance Blanche in committee, suggesting her floor vote is a calibrated signal rather than a kill shot. The denaturalization surge — 123 cases in 19 months versus historical averages of single digits annually — marks the most aggressive citizenship-stripping campaign in modern history, targeting crimes including aggravated sexual assault of a child. Senate math is brutal: 51-49 Republican majority minus McConnell's absence equals 50 votes; Collins' defection leaves zero margin if all Democrats oppose. Murkowski, Curtis, and Cassidy have not committed. Thune aims to schedule a floor vote before the August recess, but any further defection or McConnell's prolonged absence kills the nomination.

What to Watch Next

Three decision points will determine the outcome within days. First, Thune's scheduling: if he brings the nomination to the floor before the August recess (likely August 8-9), pressure on Murkowski, Curtis, and Cassidy intensifies; if he delays, the recess gives opponents time to organize. Second, the Sunday agreement's enforcement: Cornyn said he expects DOJ to "live up to this in future litigation," but no statutory or regulatory mechanism binds Blanche — only his word and Cornyn's vote. A single post-confirmation reversal on the fund or audit shield would validate Collins' skepticism and damage Cornyn's credibility. Third, McConnell's return timeline: his office has provided no date. If he returns before the vote, the margin expands to two; if not, the nomination lives or dies on the three undeclared Republicans. Blanche's denaturalization announcement the same day as the committee vote suggests the White House is framing him as operational and effective, attempting to lock in law-and-order Republicans. Watch for a Trump statement pressuring holdouts — his Friday Cabinet meeting comments showed personal investment in Blanche's confirmation.

Bottom Line

Todd Blanche's attorney general confirmation rests on a knife-edge: one Republican defection announced, three more undeclared, one leader absent, and a committee deal that critics call unenforceable. The evidence establishes that Blanche secured committee passage by rescinding a $1.8 billion fund and narrowing an audit shield, but the binding language remains secret and Cornyn's leverage expires at confirmation. Collins' opposition is grounded in five specific actions — audit shield, fund, abortion medication, senator indictments, DOJ employee revolt — that collectively portray a DOJ leadership willing to deploy prosecutorial power for political allies. The denaturalization surge demonstrates operational aggression on immigration enforcement that may satisfy hardliners but does not address the independence concerns. The nomination's survival now depends on whether Murkowski, Curtis, and Cassidy accept Cornyn's assurance that the Sunday agreement will hold, or whether they share Collins' view that "no real binding mechanism" exists. A floor vote this week will test whether Republican institutionalists can still constrain a president of their own party.