Polling Firm Admits Fabricating Election Data, Shuts Down After 'Social Experiment' Revelation

What Happened

On Monday, August 18, 2026, Median Strategies, a polling company that had released several surveys related to the Wisconsin gubernatorial race and the Los Angeles mayoral election, announced that its data was a "short-term social experiment" and subsequently shut down. The firm had previously published a poll indicating former Democratic Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong held a lead of over 20 points against her opponent, David Crowley. Despite these published figures, Hong ultimately lost the August 11 primary election by less than 1%. In Los Angeles, Median Strategies claimed its data showed Mayor Karen Bass leading City Councilwoman Nithya Raman by nearly 12 percentage points. The firm also reported that 16% of surveyed voters supported former reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who had been eliminated from the race in June. The Los Angeles Times initiated reporting on the poll after contacting Median Strategies regarding their data, which prompted the firm's admission and closure.

Mayor Bass had cited Median Strategies' data in a now-deleted X post, stating she was "doing the work, showing up, and gaining momentum. Let’s do this, LA!" according to ABC 7 Eyewitness News. Following the revelation, a spokesperson for Mayor Bass called for a criminal investigation, asserting that "Any bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law." Raman's campaign criticized Bass for not verifying the information before publicizing it, with spokesperson Liz Garcia noting, "Angelenos deserve a mayor who gets the facts right, communicates clearly, and does the work before announcing the result."

What the Evidence Establishes

The evidence establishes that Median Strategies, a polling firm, explicitly admitted to fabricating its published polling data, characterizing its entire operation as a "short-term social experiment." This admission was made via a statement posted to the company's website, which also declared the conclusion of its polling project and the withdrawal of all previously published polls, stating they "should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data." The firm's fabricated data included a purported 23-point lead for Francesca Hong over David Crowley in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, a race Hong subsequently lost by a margin of less than one percentage point on August 11. Similarly, the firm reported a 12-point lead for Karen Bass over Nithya Raman in the Los Angeles mayoral race, based on a survey of 560 Los Angeles voters conducted between July 30 and August 5.

The firm's statement to the Los Angeles Times confirmed its intent to examine "how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification." This indicates a deliberate act of deception rather than a methodological error. The impact of this fabricated data is evident in Mayor Bass's now-deleted X post, where she cited the false poll results to claim momentum. The subsequent call for a criminal investigation by Bass's office underscores the perceived severity of the firm's actions and their potential to influence public perception and electoral outcomes. The consistent reporting from both the Daily Caller and Breitbart corroborates the core facts of Median Strategies' admission and shutdown.

Where the Accounts Conflict

Both the Daily Caller and Breitbart largely align on the central facts: Median Strategies admitted to faking polls, labeled its operation a "social experiment," and subsequently shut down. They both cite the company's statement regarding the nature of its work and the withdrawal of its data. However, the Daily Caller provides additional specific details regarding the reactions and implications of the firm's actions that are not present in the Breitbart report. For instance, the Daily Caller explicitly mentions Mayor Karen Bass's now-deleted X post, where she cited the false data, and her subsequent call for a criminal investigation into "any bad faith attempts to influence elections." This detail highlights the direct impact of the fabricated polls on a political campaign and the official response.

Furthermore, the Daily Caller includes a direct quote from Raman campaign spokesperson Liz Garcia, criticizing Mayor Bass for not fact-checking the information before publicizing it. Garcia's statement, "Angelenos deserve a mayor who gets the facts right, communicates clearly, and does the work before announcing the result," adds a layer of political fallout and campaign-level conflict that Breitbart's account does not detail. While Breitbart focuses more broadly on the firm's admission and the general impact on the races, the Daily Caller offers a more granular view of the immediate political reactions and the specific criticisms leveled against a candidate who utilized the false data. Both outlets confirm the key figures and dates, such as Hong's 23-point lead and her eventual loss by less than 1% in the August 11 primary.

Context and Stakes

The incident involving Median Strategies carries significant implications for election integrity, public trust in polling, and the broader political information ecosystem. In an era where misinformation and disinformation are prevalent, the deliberate creation and dissemination of fabricated polling data, even under the guise of a "social experiment," can severely erode confidence in democratic processes. Polling data is frequently used by campaigns to gauge public sentiment, allocate resources, and shape messaging, and by voters to understand the political landscape. When such data is intentionally falsified, it can mislead voters, influence campaign strategies, and potentially distort electoral outcomes, as evidenced by Mayor Bass's use of the false poll results.

The stakes are particularly high in closely watched races like the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, where Francesca Hong's purported 23-point lead proved to be entirely baseless, and the Los Angeles mayoral election. The discrepancy between the fake polls and the actual election results (Hong losing by less than 1%) highlights the potential for significant public confusion and distrust. This event also raises questions about the ease with which unverified information can penetrate and spread through political discourse, especially through social media platforms. The call for a criminal investigation by Mayor Bass's office underscores the legal and ethical dimensions of such actions, suggesting that the manipulation of electoral information could be treated as a serious offense, potentially impacting future regulations on polling firms and political advertising.

What to Watch Next

The immediate focus will be on whether Mayor Karen Bass's call for a criminal investigation into Median Strategies' actions gains traction. Law enforcement agencies, potentially at the state or federal level, would need to determine if the firm's "social experiment" violated any election laws or statutes related to fraud or misinformation. The scope and progress of any such investigation will be a key indicator of how seriously authorities view deliberate polling fabrication. Additionally, the campaigns directly affected, particularly that of Nithya Raman, may continue to leverage this incident to criticize opponents who relied on the false data, potentially influencing public perception in ongoing or future electoral contests.

Beyond the immediate legal and political fallout, observers should monitor the reactions from established polling organizations and election integrity groups. This incident could prompt calls for stricter verification standards, greater transparency in polling methodologies, or even new regulatory frameworks for political polling firms. The broader media landscape will also be under scrutiny, as outlets may re-evaluate their processes for vetting and reporting on polling data from lesser-known or newly emerged firms. Any legislative proposals aimed at addressing the spread of election-related misinformation, particularly concerning polling, would signal a significant policy response to this type of manipulation. The long-term impact on voter trust in published polls will also be a critical, albeit harder to measure, development.

Bottom Line

Median Strategies, a polling firm, admitted its published election data for the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral election was a "short-term social experiment" designed to observe the spread of unverified information. The firm subsequently shut down. This admission followed the release of polls showing Francesca Hong with a 23-point lead in Wisconsin, despite her losing the primary by less than 1%, and Karen Bass with a 12-point lead in Los Angeles. Mayor Bass had cited the false data in a social media post and has since called for a criminal investigation into the firm's actions. The incident highlights significant vulnerabilities in the political information ecosystem and the potential for deliberate data fabrication to mislead campaigns and the public.

The event underscores the critical need for independent verification of polling data and raises questions about the ethical responsibilities of entities operating within the political sphere. While the firm claimed its intent was experimental, the practical effect was the dissemination of false information that influenced political discourse and campaign messaging. The ongoing repercussions could include legal inquiries, increased scrutiny of polling methodologies, and potential legislative efforts to safeguard election integrity against similar manipulative tactics. The incident serves as a stark reminder of the challenges in maintaining an accurate and trustworthy information environment during electoral cycles.