German Chancellor Merz Vows to Continue Reforms Amidst CDU's State Election Losses

What Happened

On Sunday, September 20, 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared his intention to remain in office despite his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party experiencing significant defeats in two state elections. Exit polls indicated that the CDU performed poorly in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the anti-mass-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party was projected to secure the most votes, with German public broadcaster ZDF reporting 38 percent for AfD, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 36 percent. The CDU was projected to barely surpass the five percent threshold required for parliamentary representation in that state. Concurrently, in Berlin, the CDU was expected to be outpolled by Die Linke (The Left), which was projected to win 26 percent of the vote, compared to the CDU's 20 percent. These results mark the second major electoral setback for the CDU within a month, following a substantial loss to the AfD in the Saxony-Anhalt local elections earlier in September.

Chancellor Merz, addressing the nation after the exit polls, acknowledged the outcome in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a "disaster" for his party. Despite this, he explicitly stated he would not resign from his post. Merz emphasized his commitment to pushing forward with his coalition government's agenda of economic, tax, and welfare reforms. He stated, "Change takes strength. Not all of it will be applauded. In some areas the results will only appear after some time. We take on this responsibility, I take on this responsibility because I want to move our country forward." The Chancellor's popularity has steadily declined since he assumed office 16 months ago, with his disapproval rate reaching a record high of 85 percent after the Saxony-Anhalt elections, surpassing former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's previous record of 76 percent.

What the Evidence Establishes

The evidence establishes a clear trend of declining support for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union party in recent German state elections. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to be the leading party with 38 percent of the vote, according to ZDF and Die Welt, marking its second top-place finish in a state vote within a month. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) followed with 36.5 percent. The CDU's performance in this state was notably weak, with projections suggesting it might only just meet the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary seats. In Berlin, Die Linke is projected to have won with 26 percent, ahead of the CDU at 20 percent.

Chancellor Merz has publicly acknowledged these results as a "disaster" for the CDU. Despite the electoral setbacks and a record-high disapproval rate of 85 percent, Merz has unequivocally stated his refusal to resign. He has reiterated his commitment to a reform agenda encompassing economic, tax, and welfare policies. The current political landscape sees Merz leading a coalition with the SPD, a partnership formed despite the SPD's electoral losses, specifically to create a "firewall" against cooperating with the populist AfD. This strategy has reportedly constrained Merz's ability to enact swift reforms, as the SPD opposes key CDU priorities such as lower government spending, tax cuts, and reduced immigration, which are popular among the German public. The AfD, now 13 years old, is reportedly leading at the national level with 27 percent support compared to the CDU's 20 percent.

Where the Accounts Conflict

Both Breitbart and BBC World largely align on the core facts of the German state election results and Chancellor Merz's immediate response. Both outlets report that Merz called the results a "disaster" and vowed to stay on, pushing for reforms. They agree on the projected vote percentages for the AfD (38%) and SPD (36-36.5%) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and for Die Linke (26%) and CDU (20%) in Berlin. The timing of Merz's statement and the context of his declining popularity are also consistent across both reports.

However, a subtle difference in framing and emphasis can be observed. Breitbart explicitly labels the AfD as the "anti-mass-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party" and highlights the "absurd situation in which the election losers remain in power" due to the CDU-SPD coalition, framing it as the "political establishment" acting in its own interest. This outlet also provides a specific national polling lead for the AfD (27% to 20% over CDU). The BBC, while acknowledging the AfD's gains, refers to them as "far-right" and focuses more on the internal pressure on Merz, including "rumours he could even be replaced mid-term in a so-called chancellor swap." The BBC also includes a quote from Merz where he describes his reforms as "the antidote to the authoritarian poison," a phrase not present in the Breitbart account. These differences reflect varying editorial perspectives on the significance and implications of the AfD's rise and Merz's political maneuvering.

Context and Stakes

The recent state election results in Germany underscore a significant shift in the country's political landscape, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continuing its ascent. This marks the second instance within a month where the AfD has secured a leading position in a state election, following its victory in Saxony-Anhalt. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is facing a severe challenge, as evidenced by his record-high 85 percent disapproval rate, surpassing that of his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, prior to his party's rejection by voters. Merz's decision to form a coalition with the election-losing Social Democrats (SPD) rather than engaging with the AfD, which he has branded as "beyond the pale," has created a political "firewall." This strategy, while intended to isolate the populist party, has been criticized for maintaining a government where the losing parties hold power.

The stakes for Merz and the CDU are substantial. His ability to enact promised economic, tax, and welfare reforms is severely hampered by the coalition with the left-wing SPD, which opposes key aspects of his agenda, including lower government spending, tax cuts, and reduced immigration. These issues are identified as top priorities for the German public, creating a disconnect between the government's actions and public demand. The continued growth of the AfD, now reportedly dominating at the national level with a 27 percent lead over the CDU, suggests that Merz's "firewall" strategy may be inadvertently creating an open lane for the populist party to consolidate power at both state and national levels. The political instability and the struggle to implement reforms could have broader implications for Germany's economic trajectory and its role within the European Union, particularly if the rise of populist parties continues to challenge traditional political structures.

What to Watch Next

Observers should closely monitor the formation of state governments in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Despite the AfD's projected lead in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, other parties have indicated a refusal to work with it, suggesting that the SPD may attempt to form a minority coalition government to exclude the AfD, similar to scenarios in Saxony-Anhalt. The success or failure of such coalition efforts will indicate the strength of the "firewall" strategy against the AfD at the state level. Additionally, the final vote counts, expected in the coming hours after polls closed at 18:00 local time (17:00 BST), will confirm the precise parliamentary composition and the CDU's exact standing.

Internally, the pressure on Chancellor Merz within the CDU will intensify. Despite his public refusal to resign, the "disastrous" election results and his plummeting approval ratings could fuel further speculation about a potential "chancellor swap" or a leadership challenge within his party. The outcome of his reported "crisis talks" at CDU headquarters in Berlin will be crucial in determining the immediate stability of his chancellorship. Furthermore, the progress of Merz's proposed economic, tax, and welfare reforms will be a key indicator. Any significant delays or watering down of these reforms due to coalition disagreements with the SPD could further erode public confidence and provide additional momentum for the AfD, which capitalizes on public dissatisfaction with the established parties. The national polling trends for the AfD, currently showing a lead over the CDU, will also be important to watch as they reflect the broader shift in German political sentiment.

Bottom Line

Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democratic Union are facing a profound political crisis following significant electoral defeats in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has demonstrated continued strength, securing a leading position in a second state election within a month, while the CDU struggles to maintain its traditional voter base. Merz's commitment to remaining in office and pursuing reforms, despite a record-low approval rating and internal party pressure, highlights the deep divisions within German politics.

The current coalition strategy, which excludes the AfD but relies on the Social Democrats (SPD), appears to be hindering Merz's reform agenda and potentially creating an environment where the AfD can further consolidate its national influence. The immediate future will involve complex coalition negotiations at the state level and ongoing scrutiny of Merz's leadership within the CDU. The long-term implications include a potential reordering of Germany's political landscape, with populist forces gaining ground, and challenges to the country's economic and social policy direction. The political establishment's ability to address public concerns regarding immigration, government spending, and economic stability will be critical in shaping Germany's trajectory.